Best Value Bets for the NCAA Men’s Early Years Championship

Gonzaga’s placement in first place overall for the second consecutive season was no surprise. The Zags, led by junior Drew Timmy and freshman Chet Holmgren, are the second most effective offensive team in the country after adjusting for schedule strength and their defense ranks eighth, leaving Gonzaga and Arizona the only teams in the standings. Top 10 of my Pomeroy scales. Surprisingly, most sports betting books list Gonzaga at +400 ($100 bet to win $400) to cut the nets in this year’s National Title game. Based on their place among the ranking systems reviewed by Ken Massey, mostly first and second, we expect Gonzaga to win the championship about 31 percent of the time, giving this bet an plus expectancy of up to $0.55 per dollar bet. Your view of Gonzaga will vary, but consider this a positive expectancy bet as long as you feel they have a better than 20% chance of winning everything.

Here are the 16 other top teams worth investigating in the futures markets and three more to keep on your radar based on their winning chances and the odds on offer. The possibilities are as of Tuesday morning.

No. 16 (per committee) UCLA, +2500

Money streak at fair value based on chance of winning a national title: +2100

The Bruins beat Villanova and Arizona with three wins in the first quarter (a sliding scale that determines the strength of the schedule based on game location) this season and losses on the road to Arizona (third in the Pomeroy Rankings) and USC (No. 28), last with three points, understandable Looking at the ranking of those other shows this season. The rest of UCLA’s resume looks solid, ranking 15th in offensive and defensive proficiency per KenPom rankings with one of the lowest attacking turnover margins (14 percent, fourth). These numbers should insulate them from the great annoyance of an opportunistic opponent.

No. 11. Tennessee Volunteers +6000

Money streak at fair value based on chance of winning a national title: +2100

Tennessee ranked third in the latest reveal behind Arizona and Baylor despite the Arizona Volunteers’ defeat 77-73, in Knoxville in December. Tennessee State has four more first-quarter wins on its résumé, including a win over Kentucky, which ranked sixth in the reveal last week.

Coach Rick Barnes watches his defense, the fourth best player in the country, does his job night after night, and the team’s high forced turn rate (24 percent, 11th) as well as offensive rebound rate (33 percent, 42nd) are two distinguishing features of the teams. Which beats quality, making the Vols a formidable enemy in the later rounds.

Money streak at fair value based on chance of winning a national title: +2400

It’s interesting how high the Cougars rank in the NCAA’s NET Ranking, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary screening tool for evaluating teams, yet was unable to crack the top 16 in a recent reveal. Houston ranked fourth in the NET rankings, ranking above all but Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kentucky. By contrast, Providence is ranked 27th and is included.

Houston also ranks seventh in the Pomeroy Rankings and 12th overall in the Massey table, giving the Cougars the status of being named among the best college basketball player for the 2021-22 year. However, the committee undoubtedly considered the team’s lack of victory in the first quarter and decided that it still had work to do. However, Houston will likely have a 5 percent chance of being the last team standing, making its current price of +3500 an intriguing proposition with a positive forecast of $0.44 per $1 bet.

Money line at fair value based on chance of winning the national title: +48000

The brackets’ latest predictions, a set of 119 different perspectives aggregated into the Bracket Matrix, see the Huskies as seeded No. 6 and third highest for the Big East team after Villanova and Providence. Only Villanova is ranked higher by Pomeroy’s rankings among the teams in the conference and no Big East team has performed better defensively after taking into account the strength of the schedule.

Connecticut’s biggest strength is its ability to go around the edge, which manifests itself in two ways. It allows them to generate additional possessions through offensive rebounds — the team tops 38 percent of their errors in 2021-22, the third-highest in the country — and keeps opponents with an average of 46 percent of field goals around the basket, which is good enough. To put them in the top three percent of college programs this season. The Husky also limits jump shooters by 28 percent within 17 feet of the basket while the rest of the nation allows 37 percent.

Money line at fair value based on chance of winning the national title: +17000

Keegan Murray, the 6-foot-8, 22-year-old sophomore who could become the first-round pick in the Iowa NBA since Ricky Davis in 1998, is averaging 42.8 points per 100 ownership while shooting 66 percent around the basket in the Big Ten. He’s also tough to guard in transition, as he’s scored nearly 1.5 points per possession, which is good enough to put him in 96 percent of college players this season.

According to the Basketball Reference, Murray deserved to win six stocks this season, the fourth most qualified players, and that’s a big reason Iowa State is still on track to qualify for the championship despite the team losing Luca Garza, National Player of the Year, and Joe Weskamp, ​​All-Big Ten player last season.