College basketball odds, picks, predictions for Wyoming vs Colorado State (Wednesday, Feb 23)

Wyoming vs Colorado odds

Just 65 miles separates Laramie, Wyoming, and Fort Collins, Colorado, and if the latest game is any indication, Wyoming and Colorado could be in for another thriller at Mountain West at Moby Arena on Wednesday.

Colorado State lost the game at Laramie on January 31 after David Rudy’s free throw in the last second, and the Cowboys won the game in overtime.

Now, the Rams have to defend their home ground with both the rivalry and the Conference regular season title at stake. Four teams in two games from each other on the top of Western Mountain.

Wyoming and Colorado State have two of the best coaches in the league, the two top attackers in the conference and some players who are sure to make their First Team All-MWC.

Between CSU star Rudy and dynamic guard post duo Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike for Wyoming, the rematch should provide plenty of drama between these two close-knit NCAA Championships.

Wyoming could exploit the Rams’ biggest weakness – the inner defense – while the Rams could exploit the Cowboys’ biggest problem – the perimeter defense.

Wyoming’s shot is much better than the 3 and won the first game at home in a thrilling home and away game, but I expect the Rams to defend their home ground to have an exciting final two weeks at MWC.

Wyoming has had one of the most impressive four games you’ll see from a mid-level major, beating Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State, and Utah in four straight games.

All matches made it to the final property, with the Cowboys winning two of them in overtime. Coach Jeff Linder admitted that Wyoming was exhausted after that string of games.

In a neutral spot in a tough road environment, Wyoming lost at The Pit in New Mexico despite winning the ShotQuality Report. Cowboys just had a night off.

They bounced back with a comfortable win over Air Force One, but now, the Cowboys need to prepare for their final five-game push here. If the Cowboys go 4-1, they will likely at worst be co-champions at Mountain West, especially given the Boys’ remaining schedule.

Overall, countless close wins have made the Cowboys a bit lucky this year. At 8-2 in close matches, per BartTorvik, they ranked 20th in the country on this metric.

They are a veteran group and have good shooter games, so it’s no surprise that they are good at close-up games. However, they were very fortunate to beat both CSU and Utah State during their last run.

Based on KenPom and BartTorvik’s fortunes and fortunes that aren’t explained by number ratings, Wyoming ranks among the top teams that have benefited from some of the bounces they’ve had in their moments of great influence.

Wyoming’s defense is too weak to defend both in the periphery and in ball screens, two areas that the Rams love to live with in attack.

If the Cowboys get caught in a transition where the Rams are trying to push the pace, Wyoming’s transition defense is out of the top 200.

Two losses to UNLV likely cost Nico Medved a chance for a conference title in the regular season, but the Rams have racked up enough wins to return to the NCAA Championship for the first time since 2013.

If the Rams were to turn the table and win the remaining games, and take one additional loss to the Boys and Wyoming, the league title would be split based on the standings.

But other than that, the Rams will want to take revenge on the first meeting that ShotQuality suggested they should have won down the road. Rudy’s mistake (he’s a 71% shooter) would have changed the conference title picture dramatically.

The Colorado State defense waned a bit compared to last season—despite most of the same players—but the Rams conceded a set of open 3s and Wyoming had them push in the first encounter.

The Cowboys made 9 out of 21 (43% of beyond the arc) at that meeting.

The biggest surprise is that Colorado State hasn’t hit the ball well from outside the arc this season, especially in team play. The Rams are 10th out of 11 teams out of a 3-point range in the MWC, and that’s going to decline favorably at some point.

CSU projects as an elite shooting team that can dig up shots from everywhere on the ground, and given the number of Wyoming open appearances that have been recognized, Wednesday could be the perfect time for rams to find their range.

Wyoming vs. Colorado Select Betting

Colorado State opened as a losing streak and closed as Laramie’s favorite, but both teams have a well above-average domestic stadium advantage. The hammock must be large enough for Colorado to be a larger preferred home than it is currently on the market.

From a matching perspective, Rudy did enough to fight Ike’s ability at the post in the first meeting, and the Rams led that match by eight points at one point in the second half.

They couldn’t make enough surround shots to maintain the lead. Also, Wyoming is back in the game.

If the positive regression in shooting finally comes to Rams in team play, they are the better team. At home, they should win the frontier war relatively comfortably.

picking Colorado -5 or better