Could the Yankees break the MLB winning record?

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The New York Yankees went to 16 rounds unhurt over the weekend, leaving them eight hits without a hit in a row. what happened after that? A comeback and a win over the Houston Astros on Sunday. Then a four-round win over the Oakland Athletics returned on Monday, New York’s 54th win of the season, which continued to court the team at a record pace.

The Yankees had the biggest wins in baseball, Seven More than their rival the New York City Mets. The Bronx Bombers scored the most runs per game (5.1) and allowed the fewest (3.1). How high are expectations? historically high.

The Yankees’ win percentage of .726 that entered Monday’s 10th best start to an MLB season through 73 games was tied, with only one of the 13 teams topping that record–the 2001 Seattle Mariners–have made such a race this century. The Mariners ended up tying the record for winning 162 games with the 116th season, which is equivalent to a mark set by the Chicago Cubs in 1906. At the most basic level, if the Yankees maintained that winning rate of 162 games, they would win 118 games, an astonishing number.

The 1906 Cubs had their achievement in a shorter season (152 games), so Chicago has the best winning percentage in baseball history (.763), which the Yankees are unlikely to threaten. And the Dodgers went 43-17 (.717) in the shortened 2020 pandemic season for a slightly better win percentage than the 2001 Mariners (.716). Anyway, New York has a chance to overtake the Mariners’ mark while chasing the 28th championship for the franchise.

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So, how likely is New York to equal or exceed this lofty victory? To assess the Yankees’ chances, we can consider the average of two factors. The first is the team’s starting game win rate compared to its next opponents. Base runs give us a good estimate of team performance by minimizing the impact of at-bat sequencing on results. For example, if four consecutive walking runs are issued to the team, it will almost certainly result in a run; However, if these same four lanes are sprayed throughout the game, there’s a good chance the walk itself won’t generate any runs. According to FanGraphs, the Yankees’ core runs indicate that they should have won 49, not 54, of their first 74 games, illustrating the good fortune they’ve had.

The second factor is the relative strength of the team as it is reflected in the betting markets. Similar to how we derive NFL team ratings for athletes using crowd-facing point spreads, we can do the same with baseball money line odds. (This involves using a solver to track each completed game and reduce the error between known implied win rates and what we estimate based on participating teams. In plain English: we track how the odds makers evaluate each team in each game as a measure of strength.)

Using the average of these two talent indicators, the Yankees have a 27 percent chance of winning at least 117 games and breaking the MLB record.

The record would be good, but the world title is clearly more important to the franchise. A win rate above 70 percent – which is 113 wins in a 162-game season – certainly earns the Yankees the right to be ahead. Since 1900, only 10 teams have finished with this winning rate. Eight appeared at the World Championships, and five champions were crowned.

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According to FanGraphs’ predictions, the Yankees have the fourth-best chance of winning the World Championship (12.3 percent), trailing the Astros, Mets and Dodgers and equaling the Atlanta Braves. The fact that the Yankees have won more games than the raw count numbers indicate, plays a role in that estimate. In comparison, the Dodgers won three less A match more than expected, indicating that it is stronger than it appears in the rankings. The Mets have outlasted the Yankees (five more wins than anticipated), but three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer should be back soon — and perhaps two-time winner Jacob Degrom, too.

FiveThirtyEight is more optimistic about the Yankees, giving them the best chances of a title at 22 percent. Betting markets are located somewhere in the middle. The future odds of the Yankees winning the World Series are +445, which means you’ll win $445 for every $100 you bet. This means that there is an 18 percent chance of winning a title, which drops to 16 percent after removing the amount the bet operator charges.

As the odds suggest, it’s a bit surprising for the Yankees to play this is we will. The Astros were the favorites to win the MLS title from November through April, and the Toronto Blue Jays were the favorites to win the Middle East race from April to May. New York was the third choice behind Los Angeles and Toronto to finish the season with the best baseball record.

Aaron Judge is on track for 51 home runs and Anthony Rizzo for 35 has clearly helped, and any dip by either hitter will reduce the Yankees’ chances of a record win – or title. Until that happens, though, the judge’s declaration seems fair: “We have the best team on the planet,” he said after one of New York’s latest steps into history.

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