By Eduard Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
Fans enjoy hot dogs and cold drinks on a weekday afternoon. The familiar clicking sound of the ball meeting the racket before it flies out of sight. Classic pruners, live bunkers and 7-strokes.
The return of baseball.
And while enjoying the game from a fan’s perspective is as easy as a Sunday morning double-header, betting on baseball and knowing which of the thousands of stats to look for can seem overwhelming. So when it comes to putting yourself in the best position to make your bets out of the park, I’ve got you covered.
In this article, I’ll go through the language of baseball betting and point you toward the resources you need to find the most important stats. My goal is to teach you how to bet Single games. Baseball futures are also a fun way to bet on the sports I love, so we’ll dive into that as well.
But, first, let’s start with the basics – the money line, the operating line and the total over/under.
Each game has a screen like the one below:
Let’s start with the simplest bet you can make, the total is over/under. The last column shows the total number of runs expected in the game. In our example, the total is listed in eight runs. You will then bet on whether you think the total laps scored by both teams will be over or under eight runs. easy right?
Next, let’s divide the money line. In essence, this is a straightforward bet, since you only get to choose who you think will win the game. If you choose the winner correctly, you will get the payout listed. In the above graphic, the money line is the leftmost number.
The number in the middle column of this graph is called the running line. With this bet, you are basically betting on the number of kicks the team will win. The team with a negative running line is the favorite to win and the team with a positive running line is the underdog. In order to win by picking a favorite based on your running streak, that team must win more than the runs listed. In this case, the angels must win more than one run in order to win your bet.
Next up to payments. Usually, a negative number means that an outcome is more likely to occur. This negative number means that the implied probability is greater than 50%. In our example, the negative numbers indicate the amount you must bet to win $100.
In this case, if you bet the Boston money line, a $100 bet will pay you $110. On the flip side, if you take Anaheim -133, you’ll have to risk $133 to win $100 if the Angels win.
Remember, when there is a plus sign, it means that the results are unlikely to occur. This is why those teams are usually called underdogs.
When it comes to line running, it’s a similar concept to risk and pay. If Boston gets +1.0 at -120, you should bet $120 to win $100 if you like the Red Sox running streak. If you take Anaheim -1 at +100, you put $100 to win $100 if you like the Angels running streak.
These are the ground rules, and like anything else, you’ll feel more comfortable with repetition and experience. Now comes the next painfully obvious question: On whom shall I bet?
Therefore, you will need to stay updated with all my MLB posts on FOX Sports. Jokes aside, the answer is that you’ll need working knowledge of which baseball stats are descriptive and which are predictive. Baseball is a sport where statistics are very valuable. Let’s show you how you can use these stats to your advantage.
Descriptive statistics explain what happened. Mike Trout has a 0.319 hit average and Max Scherzer has a 2.45 earned run average are two examples of descriptive stats. The problem with profiles is that there is no guarantee that they will accurately predict the future. That’s the whole purpose of betting, right! As interesting as they are, these base box score numbers are bad indicators when a player is going through a hot streak, or worse, into a slump.
Predictive statistics do a better job of doing exactly what it looks like they do – predicting the future. You’ll often see the word “expected” alongside these stats. Components of these stats include measurable items such as exit velocity, and velocity of the ball when it is hit. You may also see the launch angle, which is the angle the ball flies after it comes into contact with the racket. By considering how likely the hit is to occur with a given exit velocity and firing angle, these probabilities can be added to get the expected hit average (XBA). Then, by comparing your BA to XBA, you can get a better idea of which hitters are set to get hot and which are due to regression.
Yes, that was a lot. So, to make it easier, baseballsavant.mlb.com It includes these predicted stats in each game preview. The site also includes league-wide information to help with future bets, such as selecting a World Championship winner.
Speaking of futures, the easiest way to describe them is to be a bet on an event that will happen in the future. Popular bets as they relate to MLB are bets on teams to win the World Championship or which player will win the MVP award.
One of the main ways to make such forecasts is through the operating differentiation. The Pythagorean Prediction is a formula that uses the number of runs recorded and runs allowed to arrive at the winning percentage of the ball club should You have. The team that beats its predicted Pythagorean record is down to regression, while the team that has experienced a lot of misfortune must be prepared to do better the following season. There are other ways to dig deeper and get more granules.
You can look at the ball club’s attack and defense and see how many kicks should have been scored and allowed, then adjust according to the strength of the schedule (baseball analyst Clay Davenport explains all of these tweaks here). Including these adjustments gives you third-order gains and losses. Perhaps the football clubs that are underperforming compared to their third-tier records are poised for success going forward. This kind of data gives us the tools we need to make some educated bets on the season.
While there are many predictive statistics and many permutations of predictive statistics, applying the latest and greatest is often the key to beating the daily and futures markets.
Now comes the fun part. Hopefully, now that you’ve written down the basics, you’re in a good position to throw some cash into a baseball bet or two. But, if you still need more help, I’ve got you covered, too. Stay tuned for my next article in which I will delve deeper into the stats above to give you the three best MLB futures bets I can make right now.
And as always, be sure to head over to the FOX Bet to get in on your baseball betting right now!
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist and assistant professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These feelings led him to appearH Cold brew lovers. Edward previously worked on local television, particularly for the Fox subsidiary in Dallas, covering the Rangers, Cowboys, and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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