NCAA Men’s College Basketball Bets & Shootout Chances for Saturday’s Top 25 Games
There is no shortage of top 25 teams playing to the court on Saturday as the men’s college basketball season draws to a close. Nineteen ranked teams participate in the competitions, with four matches taking place between ranked competitors.
I’ve previewed and featured selections for each of those matches to prepare you for this pivotal weekend of college hoops.
There are two of the top 25 clashes taking place in the SEC between No. 6 Kentucky and No. 18 in Arkansas, as well as a match between No. 3 Auburn and No. 17 Tennessee.
In The Big 12, seed No. 5 Kansas battles No. 10 Baylor and out West in the late game, top seed Gonzaga wraps up his regular season schedule with No. 23 St. Mary’s.
Season record: 28-31-1
Check out the latest college basketball odds at SI Sportsbook
time: 2 PM ET | CBS
Spread: Kentucky +2 (-110) | Arkansas-2 (-110)
money line: Kentucky (+110) | Arkansas (-143)
Above under: Under 147 (-110) | Over 147 (-118)
The Wildcats have won their last two home games after losing the road to Tennessee two weeks ago. The UK is back on the road this weekend in the highly competitive SEC to take on a hot Arkansas team that is pushing Kentucky and No. 1 Auburn for the best conference record. Saturday’s Razorbacks enter a three-game winning streak that includes a 10-point win over Tennessee a week ago.
Kentucky prides itself on its stellar attack, which averages a better than 80 PPG and ranks third in adjusted offensive efficiency over KenPom. Arkansas’ strength lies in its defense, which brought the Volunteers up to 48 points last week, though the Hogs are more than capable of putting points into groups with JD Notae leading the way.
What is at stake: Kentucky could reclaim its spot as the predicted No. 1 seeded with a win over Arkansas, especially with the five teams ranked ahead of the Wildcats all facing tough opponents this weekend. And Arkansas, the predicted No. 6 seed, could continue to climb if they score a third win against a seeded opponent in as many weeks.
Choice of money or spread: Arkansas Moneyline
Few teams are as hot as Arkansas right now. The Razorbacks have gone 12-1 in their last 13 games, their only loss by a single point. They’re also tough at home, having lost one game all season at Bud Walton Arena, the same place they knocked out Auburn a few weeks ago. All three Wildcats losses in the SEC have come on the road at the hands of ranked opponents. This trend continues on Saturday afternoon.
over/under check: more than 147
Both teams have top scorers—for Kentucky it’s Oscar Chiboy and for Arkansas it’s Notai—but the Wildcats and Razorbacks also have capable scorers other than their star players who will see this as a high-scoring issue. The Arkansas games are over a little over half the time and they’ve been successful in games with a total of 158.5. Both teams are close to 80 in one close.
LG Patterson / AP
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time: 4 PM ET | ESPN
Spread: Auburn +3.5 (-110) | TN -3.5 (-110)
money line: Auburn (+138) | Tennessee (-188)
Above under: Under .5 (-110) | More than .5 (-110)
After losing once in their first 23 matches, the Tigers have now lost two of their last five matches. Auburn is still at the helm of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and scores a win over Olly Mays after falling to Florida last week. The Volunteers return to Tennessee after their 19-point win over Missouri on Tuesday. Utah has not lost at home this season.
Auburn has one of the best offenses recorded in the country, led by Jabari Smith, who was expected to pick the lottery, and her defense is incredibly malfunctioning as Walker Kessler takes nearly five shots per game. Tennessee survives with an attack with fewer goals and a defense that makes life very difficult for its opponents, hitting nearly 10 steals per game and keeping them at a low percentage of field goals.
What is at stake: Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee are all pressing Auburn for the best record in the conference due to the Tigers’ recent gaffes. However, Auburn is still the expected top seed, and another win over the seeded opponent could cement that spot. Tennessee is the predicted No. 3 seed who could boost her resume with her second win in the top five in two weeks.
Choice of money or spread: Auburn +3.5
The Tigers are only the underdog for the third time all season and I love them in this spot as they get 3.5 points. Despite being a frequent favourite, Auburn has one of the best ATS records and should keep this Knoxville game close – if you don’t win outright. The Volunteers are more than able to defeat the Tigers, especially this version that looked weak, but I see this game as tight and low on scores.
over/under check: under 139.5
Auburn has only scored 80 points once in his last five games and made just 62 last week against the Gators. Tennessee’s defense was more than capable of keeping them in the ’60s – it kept its six other opponents under 70 points. The Vols have had a few scoring blasts lately but the Tigers should be able to keep them in check as well.
Charlie Riddle/AFP
time: 8 pm | ESPN
Spread: KS +3 (-110) | Baylor -3 (-110)
money line: KS (+138) | Baylor (-188)
Above under: Under 150 (-110) | More than 150 (-110)
The Jayhawks won four times in a row after losing 3-2 during a brutal five-game period exclusively against top 25 opponents at the end of January through February. Kansas defeated Baylor earlier this month, 83-59, in a statement win and is now attracting bears on the road. Baylor is 4-1 since losing to KU and narrowly beat Oklahoma State on Monday in overtime, 66-64. The Bears started the season 15-0 and have been 8-5 since then.
Ochai Agbaji tops the Big 12 with a score of 20.2 PPG, which is a large part of Kansas’s 80 PPG as a team. Baylor has one of the weakest scoring defenses and ranks well in attack and defense with a KenPom top 15 by both metrics.
What is at stake: Kansas appears well-established as the top seed, but the remaining matches against 20th seed Baylor and Texas, which won the first-seeded meeting between the two teams, could threaten that standing. Baylor is two expected seeds and one seed that is not on the table. Moving on, of course, would require the evening until the series with the Jayhawks.
Choice of money or spread: KS +3
Jayhawks getting points against a team they beat by 24 earlier this month? Involve me. KS has momentum heading into this meeting, with Baylor barely surviving a fear of overtime with just under .500 Cowboys. This is the first game that hasn’t been favored over KU in all of the season and I’m jumping on the opportunity to pick them up with some insurance.
over/under check: under 150
Baylor shot less than 30% from the field in the last encounter when these teams collected 142 points. It’s possible that the Bears will never have such a bad hike again, but it’s also fair to expect that the Baylor defense will be able to do more to curb KS. Baylor has caught four of the last five opponents with less than 65 points.
Jed Jacobson/AFP
time: 10 pm | ESPN
Spread: Gonzaga -10.5 (-110) | Saint Mary’s +10.5 (-110)
money line: Gonzaga (+) | Saint Mary (-)
Above under: Under 144 (-118) | More than 144 (-110)
Saturday is the last season for Best Bulldogs. Gonzaga is riding a 17-game winning streak and has yet to lose in 2022 – his most recent loss came on December 4. St Mary’s lost to the Zags 74-58 on the road a few weeks ago and now hosts the WCC’s top team.
The Gaels have won three in a row and are counting on a solid defense, ranking 10th on KenPom, which put Gonzaga in third place in total points. Bulldogs choke on the best margin to score in DI, outsourcing opponents to an average of 25 PPG. Their average hair is less than 90 PPG and they have crossed 100 points multiple times.
What is at stake: Gonzaga is the top seed overall and that won’t change if he completes his second consecutive season undefeated in multiplayer on Saturday. Even if the Bulldogs fall, they are locked into one seed and were unanimously named the best team in the nation in the latest AP poll. St. Mary’s gets a second shot at Goliath in her pre-tournament conference where she is expected to be the sixth seed. That could change depending on how closely Gaels play the Zags.
Choice of money or spread: Gonzaga -10.5
It was Gonzaga’s closest match since his last loss with a 12-point win over Santa Clara. The Bulldogs don’t let the teams hang around – they’re sure they didn’t win 16 points against the Gaels a few weeks ago. Gonzaga’s insult is too big for any team to cling to, let alone a Saint Mary’s team that wouldn’t be harmed by an attack that could score 100 points on any given night. The Bulldogs are headed to the WCC Championship in a big way.
over/under check: more than 144
Surprisingly, Gonzaga’s matches stayed less than half the time even with the nation’s best attack. This streak is several points lower than the mid-150s through the low 160s that usually accompany Zags games, which is why I’m comfortable taking the reins. The first meeting between these two teams scored only 132 points. I don’t think St. Mary’s limit the Bulldogs as they did the first time and the Gael would probably add to the insult more than they did in that meeting.
Check out the latest odds at SI Sportsbook
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