Thursday’s top 3 bets list, including Tigers vs. Astros and Rays vs.Mariners (May 5)

It’s Major League Baseball’s holiday, and there are 10 games on the schedule including seven that start under the lights.

It’s that night’s roster that our analysts are watching. We have picks in three games, including Tigers vs. Astros and Rays vs. Mariners and Marlins vs.

Here are our top three bets from Thursday’s MLB roster.

MLB Choices & Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

pick or pick
Tigers +145
the book
BetMGM
jugs
Tarek Scobal vs. Jose Orchidi
the first show
8:10 PM ET

Tanner McGrath: There is no reason to trust Jose Orchidi. 5.95 ERA is supported by higher expected stats (7.15 xERA, 4.63 xFIP) and 5.95K/9.

Perhaps Urquidy’s most worrying stat is his home run, which comes in at 1.83 HR/9 from 1.43 HR/9 last season. This is in a poor home run environment while the HR/FB ratio has remained constant.

Plus, Houston’s lineup didn’t set the world on fire as usual. 103 wRC+ is 16 in MLB so far, and the Astros’ .378 wOBA has been paired with .346 xwOBA, indicating a potential regression.

I would much rather look at the young Tarek Scobal, who was brilliant but brilliant. I think he’s starting to accumulate all that this season, posting four starts from five innings plus 3.05 ERA and 2.73 xFIP.

We weren’t so lucky. Skubal has a BABIP north of 0.335 and a south strand rate of 55%, both of which should pull back positive.

Matching the Bullpen is basically a wash, and while the Tigers are at a disadvantage from a hits perspective, there’s enough value in the +145 number to take a shot with Detroit today.

I’ll run it up to +130.


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Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners

pick or pick
Rays -130
the book
kings
jugs
Shane McClanahan vs. Robbie Ray
the first show
9:40 PM ET

Jules Posner: The Tampa Bay Rays are 7-3 over their last 10 games and it looks like they’ll find a foothold after a choppy start.

With all the hype around the Yankees and Blue Jays, the Rice is still nibbling on the heels of Middle Eastern leaders.

On the flip side, the Seattle Mariners have been 3-7 in their last 10 games and have fallen below the 0.500 mark on the season.

The Mariners came home to a 7-2 draw this season after a nine-game wild ride in which they won just two games.

Shane McClanahan takes the ball for Rice and has been in control on his only way to start this season. He will face wRC+’s first home attack against LHP. However, the Mariners are among the teams that have featured the fewest plates in front of the LHP on their home ground, so they are candidates for regression.

Robbie Ray takes the hill for sailors and was solid at home in his prime. He has given up two over six home runs starting so far in 2022. He will face the Rays offense who is also a regression candidate since they have the second lowest number of board appearances against the LHP on the road.

That match may be decided by the Bullpens as Bullpen Mariners have outperformed the peripherals so far this season. This gives the rays a slight edge. Given the sailors’ recent struggles, Rays’ money line looks like the play here and should move to close to -150.


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Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres

pick or pick
More than 7 (-120)
the book
Caesar
jugs
Jesus Luzardo vs Nick Martinez
the first show
9:40 PM ET

Kenny Dosey: With all due respect to the season Jesus Luzardo put together, that streak is a bit bewildering. Sure, the left-handed player has a predicted 2.82 ERA and a solid 34.1% strike rate, but he can’t make this game less than a low number on his own.

There is something to be said here about the way Padres’ side have arrived this season. Their 107 wRC+ falls within the top ten in the league and their 22.4% strike rate is slightly better than the average mark.

They didn’t necessarily get the ball, but they did make plenty of play – enough to get some traffic on the base lanes and maybe a few runs on the board against Luzardo. The Marlins player also delivered an intense 40% injury rate, and may have provided some breakable balls for this cheery San Diego team.

I’m not counting on blowing up Luzardo here, but I think he can do just enough to help the cause. On the other hand, Nick Martinez could face a great deal of adversity. Marlins was very capable on the board, ranking 10th in wRC+ and 5th in walking rate. Martinez has a 6.67 xERA with a poor gait rate of 13.8%.

Both offenses – which were surprisingly strong to begin with – should be well equipped to run on the board here.


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